College Enrollment and Retention in the Era of COVID (2021)

This report by the College Board provides an in-depth analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on college enrollment and retention rates among recent high school graduates. The study uses data from College Board and the National Student Clearinghouse, covering nearly 10 million students and over 22,000 high schools to present a comprehensive picture of how the pandemic has influenced higher education.

Main Takeaways:

• Decline in Enrollment Rates:

  • Two-Year Colleges Hit Hardest: The pandemic led to a nearly 12% decline in enrollment rates at two-year colleges, with significant impacts on first-generation, underrepresented minority, and lower-achieving students from high-poverty communities.
  • Four-Year Colleges: Enrollment rates at public four-year colleges declined by 2.8%, while private nonprofit four-year colleges saw a 4.5% decline. Notably, White and Asian students experienced some of the largest declines in this sector.

• Shift in Enrollment Patterns:

  • High-Achieving Students: Students with higher GPAs (A and A+) showed significant declines in enrollment at four-year colleges, which allowed students with lower GPAs (B- and lower) to fill these spots, suggesting a potential shift in academic profiles of incoming cohorts.
  • Socioeconomic Factors: The enrollment declines were more pronounced among students from less affluent backgrounds, highlighting the exacerbation of existing educational inequities.

• Retention Rates:

  • Sector Differences: Retention rates decreased by 4.9% at public two-year colleges, while public four-year colleges saw a slight increase of 1.4%. Private nonprofit four-year colleges experienced a 1.2% decline in retention.
  • Economic Influence: Retention rates were affected by the economic challenges posed by the pandemic, with significant declines observed in areas with higher unemployment rates and higher COVID-19 case rates.

• Geographic and Demographic Variations:

  • State and Regional Differences: Enrollment and retention impacts varied widely by state and region, not always correlating with local health or economic conditions, indicating other influencing factors like institutional responses and in-state vs. out-of-state student dynamics.
  • Racial and Ethnic Disparities: Minority students, especially Hispanic and Black students, faced larger declines in two-year college enrollments, further underscoring the need for targeted support for these groups.

• Long-Term Implications:

  • Economic Recession Impact: The pandemic disrupted the historical trend where economic downturns typically increase college enrollments, particularly at more affordable two-year colleges.
  • Future Research Needs: The report emphasizes the necessity for continued research to monitor the evolving impacts of the pandemic on college enrollment and retention, especially as subsequent cohorts face different pandemic-related educational disruptions.